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THE NEW YORK TIMES-
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD-
Next month’s elections in Iran do not bode well for Iranians eager for more political and social freedoms or for the promising new relationship with the West symbolized by the recent deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Even before any ballots are cast, the death-to-America hard-liners who bitterly opposed the deal are stacking the deck against moderates led by President Hassan Rouhani, who signed the agreement and is more open than others in the power structure to further engagement with Western nations as well as expanding rights and freedoms for Iranian citizens.
The hard-liners are in a good position to prevail in the Feb. 26 polls because of political manipulation and a nominating process that gives a small group of people enormous power over who can and cannot run.
On that day, Iranians will vote for a 290-member Parliament and an 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is charged with selecting a new supreme leader when the incumbent, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 76 and reportedly ailing, dies. In a sign of heightened interest in electoral politics, some 12,000 Iranians registered to run in the election for Parliament, more than double the 5,405 who registered in 2012. Yet, more than 7,000 of those would-be candidates were disqualified by the Council of Guardians, a 12-member group appointed partly by the supreme leader and partly by the judiciary.
Last week, nine reformist political parties complained that the council had approved only 30 of the 3,000 moderates who registered, and urged top leaders to reverse the disqualifications. Of the 801 candidates who had filed to run for the Assembly of Experts, only 166 were approved.
On Tuesday came word that not even the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic Republic in 1979, could pass muster with the ideologues who are determined to maintain control and resist change. The grandson, Hassan Khomeini, a cleric, wanted to run for the Assembly of Experts but was told that the council could not establish his “scientific qualifications.”
The council has not publicly explained what that means, but it seems likely that Mr. Khomeini was rejected because he is close to Mr. Rouhani and other reformers. Human Rights Watch says it reviewed documents that show significant numbers of candidates were disqualified for their political opinions.
Iran does not have anything close to a real democracy. Mr. Rouhani is a creature of Iran’s establishment, not a revolutionary. But he has tapped into widespread popular support for ending the country’s long isolation. Because of the nuclear deal, which required Iran to sharply limit its nuclear program, crippling sanctions have been lifted and Iranian officials are now being welcomed again in world capitals as they seek business deals and acceptance. Even so, Mr. Rouhani, who won election in 2013, has yet to deliver on campaign pledges to restore basic freedoms, including free speech and the release of political prisoners. Hundreds of political activists and journalists remain in prison, according to the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center; Iran is a leading executioner of prisoners, including juveniles.
The narrow candidate selection process has provoked an unusual public argument among senior officials and clerics. Ayatollah Khamenei has warned against relaxing Iran’s anti-Western stance, voiced strong support for the vetting process and said the reformers could not hope to have any real influence in the immediate future. Mr. Rouhani responded by saying that Parliament must “belong to all people and reflect the realities of the nation” and added, “If one faction is represented in the elections and another is not, then why are we holding elections?”
Though candidates can appeal their disqualifications, minimal changes are expected. How rank-and-file Iranians will respond to the disenfranchisement is unclear. After the fraudulent 2009 presidential election, millions of people joined protests, prompting a government crackdown. Reform-minded Iranians could still have an impact this time by mustering a large voter turnout and electing at least a few more like-minded candidates to office.
In a letter this week to the Guardian Council that was posted on the opposition website, a prominent religious figure and reformist, Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, criticized the council for “acknowledging the rights of only 30 percent of our voters” and suggested this could “create a huge rift between the people and the leadership.” How this debate plays out will have profound consequences not just for Iran but for the region as well.
